Constant struggle seems to be the only way to describe the current conditions of the U.S. housing market, but don’t be easily fooled by the most recent statistics. Home prices in most major markets across the nation showed growth in the month of July, but although it sounds good and looks good on paper, compare the numbers to last year and you will see there is still slack to pick up. Real estate professionals see it, and investors sense it.
City Indexes Up
On Tuesday, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices officially stated that for the fourth straight month, July 2011 indicated an increase in the 10- and 20-city indexes.
Moreover, both records submitted a 0.9 percent increase for the month compared to June. Seventeen of the 20 total cities covered by the reports showed positive improvement over the month, with the exceptions of Denver, which didn’t change at all, Phoenix and Las Vegas. It’s highly probable that the warm weather and summer delight was part of the explanation in the prevention of waning prices.
Annual Rates of Home Prices Changing
“With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s Indices. “This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases were expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities.”
Of course, the seasonal “heat wave” of demand was expected this summer, but bear in mind that prices in most of these markets are inferior compared to what was recorded for July 2010. According to the separate S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, most metro areas, including Dallas, Boston, and Atlanta, showed increases for July over June, June over May, and even annually. However, while annual rates indeed exhibited some life, both composites recorded respective annual returns of -3.7 percent and -4.1 percent and are still lagging. This must be why Blitzer only defined annual differences as a “fairly broad” improvement.
Sustained Housing Recovery Still Elusive
“While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery,” he added. “Continued increases in home prices through the end of the year and better annual results must materialize before we can confirm a housing market recovery.”
“It should be no surprise that housing remains weak and today’s data does nothing to dispel that idea,” said Dan Greenhaus, Chief Global Strategist at BTIG LLC.
“While the worst of housing’s collapse is most certainly behind us, upward movement has proved fleeting. Prices are still down 31% from their summer 2006 high and with current fundamentals in place, there is no reason to expect significant price increases in coming quarters.”
Consumer Confidence Remains Poor
Call Greenhaus’ analysis pessimism or realism, but it’s synonymous to how the consumers feel. Despite the summer home-price increases, the consumer confidence today remains poor. Private research firm, The Conference Board, observed that September’s consumer confidence index hit 45.4. It did, however, change from 45.2 in August’s results, but the index is measured on a scale of 100.
Even with annual rates in the market on the rise, the deficit to peak years has bogged down the optimism of professionals and buyers alike. As consumers’ concerns focus more toward their own jobs and personal salaries, facing the prospect of decline or even loss of such, they are ignoring buying homes and collectively staring down a long road to recovery.
Are you a renter who’s been considering buying a home of your own? You might want to start “considering” a lot harder. Why? Because as home prices have declined over the last two years in many areas, the gap between the amount you pay to rent and the amount that you’d pay for a mortgage payment is narrowing.
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